WSJ Recession Here

[Jokerswild]

Looks like most economists think the recession is here. I think most of us could have predicted that months ago.

Most Economists in Survey Say Recession Is Here - WSJ.com

[screwballl]

I love when they say "most" well who is most? references? is it Pelosi trying to spread lies to raise taxes? Its the same as saying most people have green eyes, it is just a vague statement with little basis.

Although the classic definition of recession is two consecutive quarters of declines in the gross domestic product, Stephen Stanley of RBS Greenwich Capital pointed out that the National Bureau of Economic Research, the nonpartisan organization that is the official arbiter of recessions, doesn't always strictly follow that definition. "If you go back to the 2001 recession, there was only one negative GDP quarter, and there might not even be one negative quarter in this recession," he said.

ok so it si slowed growth, but it is still growth... so if there is a recession, how can there be growth as well? Any excuse to keep prices high is how I see it.

[Jokerswild]

So your spending just as much on goods as before gas prices shot up?

[Reloadron]

Now maybe it's just me but after reading article after article on this subject it has gotten a little "old". They all say the same thing, over and over again. They all point to the same indexes that drive our economy and draw the same conclusions. Then another article is spawned by simple rearrangement of the wording of the previous article.

OK, they have made their point. I don't need to read the same thing over and over again when I can look out my window and see what they all say. This has come down to a SSDD (Same Shit Different Day) principal. How many spins can be placed on the same thing?

What truely pisses me off is that when the market suffers a big it, it seems to suffer accross the entire board. Companies doing well see their stock suffer simply because everyone jumps ship at the same time.

I wonder how many people here, as in right here in HL are feeling anything as a result of this depression? Lost jobs? Reduction in spending habits?

Ron

[screwballl]

no spending habit changes here, no money before, still no money now

[Jokerswild]

Feeling the hit here. We only use gas for the essentials now. Food prices are also hurting, of course our income is not very much to start with.

[RAID]

we haven't been impacted much by the recession yet but i can still see in our area. this house is directly across the street and has been vacant for 9 months. the sign in the front says "Lender Owned" so i'm assuming it was foreclosed.

there is a gigantic empty lot right next to our neighborhood where you can tell they cleared off for new housing but haven't built much of anything since around August of last year. i would say they build one (maybe two) new homes per month.

down the street, there is an abandoned lot where construction was started on an entire street of homes but has been sitting there for months. the foundation of the homes (about 12 of them) is there but nothing else has been done to them and i personally think its an eyesore.

[Reloadron]

Thanks guys, I am just curious as to if there has been an impact here.

We have been fortunate. We feel a sting at the gas pump, and in home heating fuel cost but beyond that nothing really bad or anything causing major change in our spending habits.

Ron

[screwballl]

we don't do a whole lot of driving so it really isn't that bad. We got our house for half the market value 5 years ago (about $60K) and with a low fixed rate so our mortgage payment is still pretty low. The problem here was when the housing was up, the county didn't increase taxes at all but because of surround house sales made our value go up, which made my payment go up. With the housing down, they increase taxes a lot so my payment goes up more. What started out as a $500 a month mortgage payment is now closing in on $700. The first 3 years we only saw an increase of $20 per month without paying the escrow difference. The last 2 years saw almost $100 per month increases and only reason for this is that we use the tax refund to pay off the escrow difference, otherwise the payment would have gone up at least $200 per month each year, so we pay it to prevent a $900-1000 monthly payment.
The utility costs haven't really changed except for power, we used to pay around $150 and now is closer to $200 but thats not enough to worry about here.

So my income has gone up in the past few years but as the cost of everything else has too, not much has changed with how our money is spent. More income which matched more spending so we are at the same level we were 5 years ago really.

[Reloadron]

Originally Posted by RAID

we haven't been impacted much by the recession yet but i can still see in our area. this house is directly across the street and has been vacant for 9 months. the sign in the front says "Lender Owned" so i'm assuming it was foreclosed.

there is a gigantic empty lot right next to our neighborhood where you can tell they cleared off for new housing but haven't built much of anything since around August of last year. i would say they build one (maybe two) new homes per month.

down the street, there is an abandoned lot where construction was started on an entire street of homes but has been sitting there for months. the foundation of the homes (about 12 of them) is there but nothing else has been done to them and i personally think its an eyesore.

That is likely the ultimate best scenario of what I was saying with "look out the window" and I am damn well sure the pictured home is not exactly a low end home. Everything you say is a perfect example of look out the window and skip the mundane bullshit articles.

The real bitch of what you say concludes with:

down the street, there is an abandoned lot where construction was started on an entire street of homes but has been sitting there for months. the foundation of the homes (about 12 of them) is there but nothing else has been done to them and i personally think its an eyesore

I would not expect to see construction resume anytime soon.

Ron