Inflation rate is worst in 17 years

[Capper]

Thinking back we had the Savings and Loan "scam" of the 80s and early 90s.........hopefully the economy can bounce back like it did after that fiasco. I'm not optimistic, and think we are in big trouble, but heres to hoping.

[PTRMAN]

Reloadron - I think you underestimate how bad it is going to be. Citibank this morning put housing prices down 6-7% in 2008 and another 6-7% in 2009. The bulk of the subprime repricings are going to hit in the first six months of 2008, and they promise to be even worse than what we saw in 2007. Now we're starting to see problems in the commercial real estate market, not just the residential market.

One of the arguments I hear economists say is that traditionally the market predicts recessions by tanking before the rest of the economy goes south - since we haven't seen the market tank ^DJI: Basic Chart for DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE IN - Yahoo! Finance, ipso facto there is no recession coming. I think those arguments are kind of narrow, and ignore all the impacts of the coming leverage unwind.

Either way I think it isn't going to be a great year in 2008, but like always there will be pockets of good times.

BTW, One4yu2c, Carter was by FAR the worst President ever, and there's no chance Billary will be in office next year. At least not the oval office. Too many people (myself included) don't trust her.

[One4yu2c]

Originally Posted by PTRMAN

BTW, One4yu2c, Carter was by FAR the worst President ever, and there's no chance Billary will be in office next year. At least not the oval office. Too many people (myself included) don't trust her.

Woohoo, now I have TWO bookmarks! Though I'm more proclaiming we'll see a Democrat in office than specifically saying it will be Hillary. The latter I'd just view as a bonus.

[PTRMAN]

So now my ass is out there - what are you risking?

[One4yu2c]

Originally Posted by PTRMAN

So now my ass is out there - what are you risking?

Assuming your bookmarks function, feel free to do the same. If I can survive 8 years of George W., I can surely handle eating crow if need be...

[Hitman]

The Dem Race sounds like the start of a joke doesn't it?

So a Black Guy, a Blonde Woman, and a White Guy are running for President......

[Reloadron]

Originally Posted by PTRMAN

Reloadron - I think you underestimate how bad it is going to be. Citibank this morning put housing prices down 6-7% in 2008 and another 6-7% in 2009. The bulk of the subprime repricings are going to hit in the first six months of 2008, and they promise to be even worse than what we saw in 2007. Now we're starting to see problems in the commercial real estate market, not just the residential market.

One of the arguments I hear economists say is that traditionally the market predicts recessions by tanking before the rest of the economy goes south - since we haven't seen the market tank ^DJI: Basic Chart for DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE IN - Yahoo! Finance, ipso facto there is no recession coming. I think those arguments are kind of narrow, and ignore all the impacts of the coming leverage unwind.

Either way I think it isn't going to be a great year in 2008, but like always there will be pockets of good times.

BTW, One4yu2c, Carter was by FAR the worst President ever, and there's no chance Billary will be in office next year. At least not the oval office. Too many people (myself included) don't trust her.

No, I am not underestimating. Maybe it won't be a "mild" recession but also as I pretty much covered I have moved every dime we have into basically safe bonds investments. I did that before the end of 2007 when I began to read the writing on the wall. Basically I will sit on cash rather than invest right now. After things bottom out, then and only then will I consider reinvesting in the market.

The effects of the sub prime mess will be far reaching. People are already defaulting on credit card payments, unemployment is up and the overall picture says recession. I don't see depression but I sure as hell am covering my ass.

I figure it this way. Pigs get fat and hogs get slaughtered. At my age I am not about to let greed drive my decision making as to investments.

By the way, Bernake spoke and the market is down again as of now.

Ron

[PTRMAN]

Originally Posted by Reloadron

By the way, Bernake spoke and the market is down again as of now.

Ron

Surprise, surprise.

[screwballl]

when foreclosures and repos go up, buying comes down slowly... which makes houses more affordable for people and then once they are down to a reasonable price and foreclosures drop off, the buying picks up and consumer spending increases and the economy survives.. this has happened so many times before, this is just another slump caused by bankers and mortgage companies trying to inflate prices to make a buck.

[PTRMAN]

I think it will turn out to be a recession, and will likely last all through 2008.